Technologies tend to have a natural ceiling built into their utility and popularity. Once they’ve solved all the problems they can solve, their growth is effectively capped. As soon as all potato fans own a potato peeler, the peeler market’s growth potential is largely tapped out. Indeed, the big question around AI at the moment is how many problems it will be able to solve. The market could already be overblown, or it could be practically limitless.

What about stablecoins? They’ve grown from practically nothing at the turn of the decade to a market cap in the mid-12 digits and monthly transaction volumes in excess of $1 trillion. Citigroup expects the aggregate stablecoin market cap to hit around $2 trillion by the end of the decade. 

If we’re talking trillions, it sounds much more like AI than potato peelers.

But do stablecoins have a natural limit? Is their utility restricted to a certain range of problems? If so, where is it? How far can stablecoins grow, and what might stop them?

In order to find answers to these questions, let’s recall why stablecoins have come so far already, what will limit their future growth, and what that means for their overall utility, i.e. the range of problems they can solve.

Why Stablecoins Gained Market Traction

Three reasons for stablecoins’ current popularity stand out.

Stable Prices, Low Volatility

The first reason is price stability. Many cryptocurrencies are volatile, which makes them valuable for speculation but awkward to use as everyday currencies. The value of stablecoins is, well, stable. By definition. Price stability is their fundamental value proposition.

Price stability is also arguably an advantage relative to other cryptocurrencies whose value is perpetually expected to rise. If your coins’ value will double in five years, you might be reluctant to spend them now. But if your coins will be worth the same or even a little less in five years, you better spend them before they burn a hole in your pocket.

Greater Portability 

The second is portability. Exchanging fiat for crypto can be arduous, but exchanging one crypto for another is usually much easier. So many users find it more efficient to convert fiat into stablecoins in bulk, then easily shift value between various cryptocurrencies as needed. USDT is the most traded coin overall because it works so well on the other side of any crypto trade.

In many markets, these first two factors reinforce each other. Many countries’ national currencies depreciate more rapidly than stablecoins’ pegged currencies, so stablecoins give people in those countries a way to protect their wealth from depreciation. And those same countries often use currency controls to prevent capital flight, but their citizens can often access stablecoins to circumvent those artificial barriers.

Tax Optimization

The third reason is simply taxes. Many jurisdictions — including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia — classify cryptocurrencies as commodities rather than currencies. As a result, capital gains taxes apply to cryptocurrency price appreciation, so each transaction can be a taxable event. But many users and businesses might want to use crypto for its portability, like payment rails, so stablecoins’ price stability helps them avoid taxable events during routine payments.

You Can’t Copy State Money without State Rules

Fiat currency is the modern state’s crown jewel. Beyond a national currency’s symbolic value, controlling the source of everyone’s money is a very advantageous position. For an impression of what a big deal this can be, rewatch Ridley Scott’s Black Rain (it’s a great rewatch for any reason, not least of which is Michael Douglas rockin’ a killer mullet). 

If stablecoins are minting hundreds of billions of fiat equivalents and moving trillions in value each month, the state is going to take a very close interest in what they’re doing and how. You can’t open your own private mint moving that kind of liquidity and hope to stay under the regulatory radar.

Besides, history shows that states will regulate whatever they can. They have to. Any activity they cannot regulate implicitly threatens their claim to authority, and they don’t actually produce anything (besides perhaps regulation), so they need to acquire resources. In order to take their cut from an activity, states have to first quantify and control (i.e. regulate) that activity. This is the kind of argument that led Charles Tilly, one of the last century’s most respected historical sociologists, to call states “protection rackets” and “organized crime.”

Centralized activity is also why states preferred tariffs over taxes until pretty recently. Back when bureaucracies were small and populations were spread out, states found it very hard to tax income. They didn’t have the data to quantify it nor the technology to control it. So they preferred tariffs because there are far fewer ports and bridges than there are households and shops. 

In other words, the more centralized an activity is, the easier it is to quantify and control (and skim of course). More concisely: centralization attracts regulation. And the more central an activity is to state power, the more incentive the state has to regulate it, and printing money is about as central as it gets.

Stablecoins are no exception. They are centralized both in terms of the source of their value and in their actual operations, which is why regulators have been busy churning out rules lately. While that regulation might even be necessary and wise, it does and will limit stablecoins’ utility.

Rules, Their Effects, and Extrapolating the Future

The supply of regulation has increased a lot recently, but maybe it’s just meeting demand. In fact, Tether and Circle, the two biggest stablecoin issuers, are getting involved in the regulatory process with different strategies. They’re aware of their position as private USD mints and companies that take large amounts of private deposits and reinvest them (i.e. banks). Mature stablecoin issuers seem to want regulation.

The regulators themselves argue that stablecoin regulation is a good thing because it protects users and gives issuers “more predictable regulatory environments.” Not surprisingly, this is the view of the SEC. 

And this reasoning is not without merit. Companies managing hundreds of billions in liabilities should be able to meet those liabilities, and maybe someone should check. But the existing regulations have added some massive obstacles to where and how people can use stablecoins.

Let’s start with Europe, because regulatory legalese is the EU’s official language. The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is the key stablecoin regulatory measure in Europe. It became law in 2023, but the consequences only really struck in Q1 2025. Since MiCA requires stablecoin issuers to obtain an e-money license in at least one European state, major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase delisted nine leading stablecoins, including USDT, the biggest stablecoin of all. (Of course, a consortium of nine too-big-to-fail European banks is trying to launch their own euro-pegged stablecoin.) 

MiCA was a regulatory nuke, practically banning leading stablecoins and seeking to replace them with astroturfed European alternatives.

Somewhat more friendly to experimentation and innovation, the USA has implemented the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. GENIUS is a little more permissive in that the Treasury Department can determine that foreign stablecoin issuers are subject to sufficient regulation at home, sparing them the need for a local US presence. It also prescribes a few particulars like reserve requirements and public disclosure. 

While the GENIUS Act formally restricts issuers and protects users, it also makes issuers subject to the Bank Secrecy Act to prevent money laundering. As anyone knows who’s ever bought crypto on an exchange, AML and KYC are significant friction, and they effectively restrict how holders can use stablecoins. Eliminating exactly that friction was one of the features that made stablecoins attractive in the first place. Greater consumer protection might increase stablecoins’ utility in the long-term aggregate, but a user who wants to buy and trade USDT right now might disagree.

And while the EU and the USA are arguably the most important markets for stablecoins, many other markets either have regulations in place (e.g. Japan, Canada, Chile) or in the pipeline (e.g. the UK, China, Australia, Brazil, Turkey). 

Imagine a giant Venn diagram of all these regulatory regimes, and stablecoins’ utility is in the space where they all overlap and the activity remains economical. How big is that space? And given that stablecoins are pegged to national currencies, which national administrations guard jealously, are these already diverse regulatory regimes likely to converge or diverge in the future?

The denser the jungle of regulations, the smaller and more isolated the clearings where stablecoins can flourish. They will still have a niche, but some niches are more niche than others. It’s unlikely that any stablecoin, based on a national or even regional fiat currency, will satisfy all the regulators in all the markets necessary to become a global currency. That’s probably why real-world stablecoin usage ends up being far more geographically constrained than the “global digital dollars” many hoped for. Even USDT, the most widely used stablecoin, operates at scale in only a few permissive jurisdictions. With roughly 40% of USDT’s market cap and an effectively identical product, USDC faces the same structural limits.

Good as Far as They Go, but Bitcoin Can Go Farther

So stablecoins are centralized fiat tokens. Being centralized and tethered to state fiat means that regulators are grasping them tightly, resulting in cost and friction for everyone involved. This process is already well underway and will continue. Does this mean that stablecoins are doomed?

Probably not. As tokenized fiat, stablecoins are likely to thrive wherever fiat is good enough. In practice, that means conventional payments. I recently defined payments as instructions to clear a debt. Wherever an intermediated quid pro quo describes the interaction, stablecoins will probably work as the quid. Indeed, the potential to capture some of the payment business from other fintech solutions (or to defend their own) is probably why established fintech players like Klarna, PayPal, and Stripe have launched their own stablecoins or stablecoin accounts. Stablecoins are turning into normal payment fintech, but maybe just normal payment fintech.

Normal means subject to state regulations and the functional and geographic limits they impose. It means juicy fees going to intermediaries. It means friction for users. 

But there is a whole universe of value that eludes the payment model either because it requires direct, disintermediated transfers, it disregards political geography, there is no debt involved, or all of the above. The potential for value transfer is sometimes hard to see because the balkanized, intermediated payment paradigm is so dominant. We’ve simply lacked the technology to do much else until recently.

Still, whenever you toss some coins to a busker or tip a content creator, you’re pushing value, not clearing debt. Whenever cash moves from hand to hand, the transfer is disintermediated. Now imagine the busker is on the other side of the globe, and you discovered them through an app. The key to perceiving the rest of that value-transfer universe is to bring that directness and borderlessness into our digital world.

Value transfer needs less friction than fiat in both a technical and regulatory sense. But to achieve that, you’d need a currency that is detached from national currencies and decentralized. That’s where bitcoin comes in. Bitcoin is an open, decentralized, neutral monetary network that works for anyone, anywhere, anytime. If stablecoins have to get by in the clearings of the regulatory jungle, bitcoin floats breezily and limitlessly in the sky above.

Bitcoin was built on and for the internet, so it is natively programmable in ways that stablecoins can only vaguely approximate. And far from needing third-party custodians, bitcoin transfers are direct and disintermediated between the millions of users everywhere. The future stablecoins promise without much credibility is already the present for bitcoin.

It’s Easier to Win the Race without Hurdles

Utility is one of the central concepts in economics because it’s the mystic substance of decision making. People choose what they find most useful, and you know what’s most useful because it’s what people have chosen.

People are using stablecoins, which proves their utility. That usefulness isn’t going to go away, but regulation limits it. Stablecoins’ growth will stop where their utility is roughly matched by the friction that regulation induces. And the current state and probable future of regulation suggest that we’re getting pretty close to this equilibrium.

But since Bitcoin is not centralized and does not feed off state-based fiat currency, it is inherently harder to regulate and consequently attracts much less regulation. It’s also digitally native, which makes it a natural fit for a world of global commerce and value that flows frictionlessly across borders from one app anywhere to another. If regulation is what limits stablecoins’ utility and bitcoin is subject to much less regulation, it’s pretty clear who’s going to win the utility race. 

This is a guest post by Roy Sheinfeld from Breez. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This post Stablecoins: Evolution, not a Revolution first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Roy Sheinfeld.

Last week, bulls needed to hold closes above $85,000 to stave off the bears, and they managed to do just that. Bitcoin price dropped to support once again last week, and the bulls defended it well, pushing the price back up to close the week out at $88,656. The price on the weekly chart has been rejecting from the lower trend line of the broadening wedge pattern for several weeks now, but the trend line is so low now that the price should push above it this week. If it fails to do so this week, look for the price to take the next leg down into the low $70,000 range.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Bulls will want to continue the push this week, level by level if need be. Initial resistance sits at $91,400, with the next level at $94,000. Above here, we should see very strong resistance at $98,000. Then we should see a fairly strong resistance zone from $101,000 all the way up to $108,000. Closing above $108,000 would start to place severe doubts on the long-term top being in place here.

The $84,000 support level below is proving to be resilient, holding up again this past week. If it is lost, the expected support levels below have not changed. The $72,000 to $68,000 zone should be expected to support the price on a first test at the least. Closing below $68,000 likely leads to a slow grind down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support at $57,000.

Outlook For This Week

The bears may be getting a little flustered with their recent failure to break support. This week, look for the bulls to push back a bit harder as they gain some confidence after holding support once again. Market liquidity should be low for Christmas week, so price movement may be lacking. There are some very large long-dated bitcoin options expiring on December 26th, however, with a max pain price of $100,000, so look for the price to try to push closer to the $100,000 level this week.

Market mood: Bearish – Bulls are pushing back a little here, but they still need to prove it to the bears with some positive price action.

The next few weeks
Bulls held back the bears from breaking down major support last week. If the bulls can finally manage to take out resistance at $94,000 over the next couple of weeks, they may be able to sustain some upward momentum into the new year as well. So if we see a weekly close above $94,000, look for the price to move towards $101,000. This momentum could continue to $108,000 with a close above $100,000. Resistance becomes extremely thick near this level, though, so a strong rejection near this level should be expected if we can make it there over the coming weeks.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

This post Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bulls Target $94,000 Break for Momentum Into New Year first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

The bitcoin price could climb to $143,000 next year as continued adoption through exchange-traded funds and a more accommodating U.S. regulatory backdrop draw new capital into the market, according to a new forecast from Citi.

Analysts at the Wall Street bank set $143,000 as their base-case target for the bitcoin price over the next 12 months. They outlined a bullish scenario that places the price above $189,000, while their bearish case sees the bitcoin price falling to around $78,500 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, according to MarketWatch reporting.

The bitcoin price was trading near $88,000 on Friday, down roughly 30% from its late-October peak. The pullback followed a sharp wave of selling after the rally earlier this year, though Citi noted that outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have moderated in recent weeks.

“Our forecasts, in particular for bitcoin, rest on an assumption that investor adoption continues with flows into ETFs of $15 billion boosting token prices,” the analysts wrote. The note was led by Alex Saunders, Citi’s head of global quantitative macro strategy.

Citi also pointed to potential regulatory clarity in the United States as a key driver of future demand. The U.S. Senate is negotiating its own version of the House-passed Clarity Act, legislation that would place bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The analysts said clearer rules could encourage broader institutional participation.

The bank’s bearish scenario assumes recessionary pressures and weaker appetite for risk assets. The bitcoin price fell to multi-month lows in November as concerns over high technology valuations and broader macro risks weighed on markets. 

The cryptocurrency shed more than $18,000 that month, marking its largest dollar decline since May 2021 amid heavy investor withdrawals.

Banks are embracing bicoin

Two weeks ago, the Bank of America told its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets, signaling a major shift in its approach to Bitcoin exposure. 

The move allowed over 15,000 advisers across Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge to proactively recommend crypto to clients.

Last week, PNC Bank launched direct spot bitcoin trading for eligible Private Bank clients, allowing them to buy, hold, and sell bitcoin natively through its own digital banking platform without using an external exchange. The move was powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin’s latest sell-off underscores a market stuck in consolidation, where positive macro catalysts fail to translate into sustained upside. 

After briefly testing $89,000 on cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, bitcoin slid back toward the $84,000 range, extending a correction now entering its second month. The pattern has become familiar: sharp, data-driven rallies followed by quick retracements as sellers defend resistance below $90,000.

Macro signals offer mixed support. November CPI eased to 2.7% year over year, with core inflation at 2.6%, strengthening the case for eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. That backdrop helped spark the intraday rally. Yet rising U.S. unemployment and uneven job growth complicate the outlook, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will move cautiously. Markets appear reluctant to price in aggressive easing.

A key drag remains U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have shifted from consistent inflows to net redemptions. The outflows remove a stabilizing bid that previously absorbed sell pressure, making breakouts harder to sustain even on positive news.

Technically, the bitcoin price is range-bound. Resistance sits just below $90,000, while support near $84,000 is weakening. A decisive break lower could open a move toward the $72,000–$68,000 zone, where analysts expect stronger demand.

Extreme fear readings suggest potential undervaluation, but near-term momentum still favors sellers.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is dancing around the $88,000 level.

This post Bitcoin Price Will Jump to $143,000 Next Year, Says Citi Bank first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The bitcoin price dropped sharply today after a brief pump near $90,000, sliding to $84,544 as the price sell-off continued into its second month. 

Bitcoin lost 2% over the past 24 hours. It remains 5% below its seven-day high of $89,220 and hovers near the week’s low of $84,596. Trading volume reached $56 billion. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $1.69 trillion. The circulating supply is roughly 19.96 million BTC out of a total 21 million, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. 

The drop follows a brief rally that earlier saw the Bitcoin price test $89,000. The surge came after the U.S. released new Consumer Price Index data. Inflation rose 2.7% year over year in November, lower than expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell to 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021.

Bitcoin jumped from intraday lows near $86,000 to challenge $89,000. Traders viewed the cooler inflation report as a potential signal for looser Federal Reserve policy in 2026. CME FedWatch data suggested slightly higher odds of a rate cut by March, though January moves remain unlikely.

The rally did not last. The bitcoin price failed to break $90,000 and slid to $84,4000. This pattern is familiar: sharp spikes followed by quick retracements.

What’s dragging down the bitcoin price?

A persistent challenge is U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. These funds, once a major source of demand, have seen net redemptions. The outflows remove institutional support that previously helped stabilize the price. Without consistent ETF inflows, breakouts above $89,000 are harder to sustain.

Other economic indicators add uncertainty. Recent labor market data showed U.S. unemployment rising to 4.6%, its highest since 2021. Job growth remains uneven. The mixed signals complicate Federal Reserve policy, suggesting a cautious approach despite easing inflation.

Political factors add to market complexity. President Donald Trump has publicly urged lower interest rates and suggested nominating a Fed chair favoring aggressive easing. Markets have largely treated the comments as noise, but the statements add a variable to the macro picture.

Technically, the bitcoin price is consolidating rather than trending. Resistance forms just below $90,000. Supply above this level remains strong, held by investors who bought during prior rallies. 

Analysts at Bitwise recently suggested Bitcoin could break its historical four-year cycle. The firm noted BTC might reach new all-time highs in 2026 with lower volatility and reduced correlation to equities.

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 17/100, signaling extreme fear. Historically, readings in this range have coincided with undervaluation. Contrarian investors see potential buying opportunities, though sentiment remains cautious.

Is $70,000 next? 

Technical analysts from Bitcoin Magazine wrote earlier this week that the $84,000 support level is under pressure. If the bitcoin price falls below this point, it could test the $72,000 to $68,000 zone. Initial bounces are expected, but a break below $84,000 could trigger faster declines toward $70,000.

Bitcoin’s price may drop to the $72,000–$68,000 support zone after breaking the $84,000 level, with bears currently in control. A strong bounce is likely from that lower zone, potentially retesting $84,000, though the 4-Year Cycle suggests further downside could occur later in 2026.

Resistance extends from $94,000 to $118,000. Bulls will need substantial buying volume to break above these levels, per Bitcoin Magazine analysts. 

Short-term momentum favors sellers. Last week, the Bitcoin price closed the weekly candle in red, failing to sustain gains near $94,000. Bears are well-positioned to push prices lower this week. 

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $84,812. Trading volume reached $56 billion. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $1.69 trillion. The circulating supply is roughly 19.96 million BTC out of a total 21 million, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. 

This post Bitcoin Price Crashes to $84,000 – Is $70,000 Next? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin briefly surged above $89,000 on Thursday as a sharply cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report came in.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price was trading near $88,374, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours, according to market data. The pullback leaves BTC about 2% below its recent seven-day high of $90,165 and roughly 4% above its week’s low near $85,374. Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at approximately $1.77 trillion, with 19.96 million BTC currently in circulation.

The initial rally was sparked by fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed inflation cooling faster than economists expected. Headline CPI rose 2.7% year over year in November, well below consensus expectations of around 3% and down from earlier readings. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, fell to 2.6%—its lowest level since early 2021.

The bitcoin price reacted swiftly around the time of the data, jumping from intraday lows near $86,000 to briefly challenge the psychologically important $89,000 level, according to Bitcoin Magazine pro data.

The move reflected renewed optimism that easing inflation could give the Federal Reserve greater room to cut interest rates in 2026, a backdrop that has historically supported risk assets, including bitcoin.

According to CME FedWatch data, odds of a rate cut by March edged higher following the release, though expectations for a January move remain muted.

Bitcoin price action 

Still, the rally proved short-lived. The bitcoin price failed to reclaim $90,000 decisively and slipped back as the session wore on, currently sitting near $88,000. This has been a market dynamic that has become familiar in recent weeks: sharp, data-driven bursts higher followed by rapid retracements.

One key headwind remains sustained outflows from the U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. After serving as a major source of demand earlier in the year, ETFs have seen steady net redemptions, removing a layer of institutional support that previously helped absorb selling pressure. Market participants say the absence of consistent ETF inflows has made it harder for bitcoin to sustain breakouts, even on positive macro news.

Macro signals remain mixed beyond inflation. Earlier this week, delayed U.S. labor market data showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, its highest level since 2021, while job growth remained uneven. The data complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook, reinforcing expectations that policymakers will proceed cautiously despite cooling inflation.

Political uncertainty is also lingering in the background. President Donald Trump has publicly called for significantly lower interest rates and indicated he plans to nominate a Federal Reserve chair who supports more aggressive easing. While markets have so far treated the comments as noise, they add another variable to an already complex policy landscape.

Zooming out, bitcoin’s price appears to be consolidating rather than trending. Despite remaining near record highs on a historical basis, price action has tightened, with resistance forming just below $90,000 and strong supply reported above that level from investors who accumulated during earlier rallies.

Analysts at Bitwise recently released a report suggesting Bitcoin could break away from its historical four-year market cycle, potentially achieving new all-time highs in 2026 while exhibiting lower volatility and reduced correlation with equities.

The Bitwise report argues that the Bitcoin price’s historical four-year cycle, tied to halvings and marked by gains followed by pullbacks, may no longer hold. The firm also challenged the long-standing criticism that BTC is too volatile for mainstream investors.

According to Bitwise, BTC was less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025, a comparison Hougan says underscores the asset’s ongoing maturation.

Market in ‘extreme fear’

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sits at 17/100, signaling extreme fear among market participants. Historically, readings in this range have often coincided with undervalued market conditions, suggesting a contrarian buying opportunity for those willing to navigate the emotional volatility.

Two days ago, the market sat near 11/100 despite a higher bitcoin price point. 

For now, bitcoin’s response to softer inflation highlights its continued sensitivity to macroeconomic data, but the inability to sustain gains above $89,000 suggests conviction remains limited. At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $88,142. 

This post Bitcoin Price Briefly Pumps Above $89,000 As Cooler CPI Data Rolls In first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, the layer-2 payments system designed to make Bitcoin faster and cheaper to use, has reached a new all-time high in capacity, signaling renewed institutional interest even as grassroots adoption lags.

Data from AMBOSS shows Lightning capacity climbed to 5,637 BTC yesterday, surpassing its previous peak in March 2023. 

The surge, concentrated in November and December, follows a year of declining capacity, as more Bitcoin is added to existing channels, enabling off-chain payments that settle nearly instantly and at minimal fees.

Yet, the network’s growth in BTC held has not been mirrored by an increase in users or nodes. Lightning currently has around 14,940 nodes, per Bitcoin Visuals, down from a peak of 20,700 in early 2022, and 48,678 channels, also below historical highs. This gap highlights a network that is becoming more capitalized but not necessarily more widely used.

Institutional Bitcoin Lightning Surge

“It’s not just one company that’s putting more Bitcoin into the Lightning Network; it’s across the board,” said Amboss, pointing to major exchanges such as Binance and OKX, which have deposited significant BTC into Lightning channels in recent weeks. 

This institutional influx contrasts with the slower adoption among smaller operators and individual users.

The surge coincides with broader ecosystem developments. Yesterday, stablecoin issuer Tether announced it had led an $8 million investment round in Lightning-focused startup Speed, which facilitates stablecoin payments over Bitcoin’s Lightning Network. 

Meanwhile, Lightning Labs rolled out version 0.7 of Taproot Assets, a multi-asset Lightning protocol. The upgrade introduces reusable addresses, auditable asset supplies, and support for larger, more reliable transactions. 

Taproot Assets enables stablecoins to leverage Bitcoin’s security while benefiting from Lightning’s speed and low fees, offering a potential alternative to Ethereum-based stablecoin networks.

All this movement could expand Lightning beyond micropayments, positioning it as a viable infrastructure for higher-value transfers. Lightning Labs called the release a foundation for “trillions of dollars to flow on Bitcoin and Lightning,” reflecting ambitions to merge Bitcoin’s security with real-world payments and financial applications.

The Lightning Network is fundamentally a system for updating and enforcing off-chain agreements on BTC balances between users, using pre-signed transactions and mechanisms to ensure the most recent state can be securely settled on-chain. 

While the current implementation relies on specific channel designs, HTLCs, and routing protocols, these components are modular and can evolve or be replaced over time without changing the core principle of secure, instant, off-chain BTC payments.

This post Bitcoin’s Lightning Network Capacity Hits New-All Time High first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Hut 8 Corp. announced a sweeping AI infrastructure partnership on Wednesday with AI model developer Anthropic and compute provider Fluidstack, marking a pretty clear signal that the bitcoin miner is pivoting to a large-scale energy and data center developer.

Under the agreement, Hut 8 will develop between 245 megawatts (MW) and up to 2,295 MW of AI-focused data center capacity in the United States, beginning with a flagship project at its River Bend campus in Louisiana. 

The partnership is structured across multiple tranches, creating a pathway to scale from an initial deployment to gigawatt-level infrastructure over time.

The first phase centers on a 245 MW IT deployment at River Bend, supported by roughly 330 MW of utility power. Hut 8 will develop the site, while Fluidstack will operate high-performance compute clusters for Anthropic. Construction of the initial data halls is expected to be completed by early 2027.

Beyond the initial phase, Fluidstack has secured a right of first offer for up to an additional 1,000 MW of IT capacity at River Bend, contingent on further power expansion. 

A third tranche gives Hut 8 and Anthropic the option to jointly diligence and develop up to 1,050 MW of additional capacity across Hut 8’s broader development pipeline.

Financially, the River Bend project is anchored by a 15-year triple-net lease with Fluidstack valued at approximately $7 billion over the base term, with total contract value rising to roughly $17.7 billion if all renewal options are exercised. 

Alphabet-owned Google is providing a financial backstop covering lease payments and certain operating obligations over the base term, underscoring the strategic importance of securing long-term AI compute capacity, per Reuters reporting. 

Hut 8 ($HUT) stock soars

Hut 8 shares surged more than 20% in premarket trading following the announcement, extending a rally that has seen the stock rise roughly 80% year-to-date. 

Investors appear to be rewarding the company’s pivot toward AI infrastructure at a time when access to power, cooling, and suitable real estate has become a bottleneck for leading model developers.

“Scaling frontier AI infrastructure is, at its core, a power challenge,” Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot said in a statement, emphasizing the company’s “power-first” development strategy. 

He added that the partnership aligns power sourcing, data center design, and compute deployment into a single integrated platform capable of operating at gigawatt scale.

For Anthropic, the deal expands an existing relationship with Fluidstack and provides a new channel for bringing capacity online as demand for advanced models continues to grow.

“Hut 8’s ability to source and deliver infrastructure at scale provides the runway necessary to continue advancing the capabilities of our models,” said James Bradbury, Anthropic’s head of compute.

The agreement also reflects a broader industry shift. Former crypto miners such as Hut 8, CoreWeave, or Bitfarms are increasingly repurposing their energy-heavy infrastructure for AI workloads as demand for Nvidia-powered compute accelerates. 

While execution risk remains — particularly around power delivery timelines and construction— Hut 8’s latest deal positions it among a small but growing group of firms bridging the worlds of energy, AI, and large-scale digital infrastructure.

Hut 8 recently reduced some of its bitcoin holdings by 389 BTC during the last month, standing out among a small group of miners and corporates trimming exposure.

While some firms added modest amounts and ETF flows turned positive, the data points to a split market in which Hut 8 and a few others acted as sellers amid pressure, contrasting with disciplined treasury buyers and programmatic accumulation elsewhere.

At the time of writing, Hut 8 shares are up 17%. Earlier in pre-market trading, shares were up over 25% at times. The price per share is currently $43.75.

This post Bitcoin Miner Hut 8 Secures Google-Backed Deal to Build Up to 2.3 GW of AI Capacity first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin price hovered above $87,000 today as market sentiment and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged to 11 out of 100, a level signaling extreme fear among investors.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is trading at $87,696, up roughly 2% over the past 24 hours, according to market data. Despite the modest rebound, BTC remains trapped in a choppy consolidation range, sitting just 0.2% below its seven-day high of $87,918 and 2% above its weekly low near $85,575.

Yesterday, the bitcoin price cratered from close to $90,000 to the mid $85,000s.

Trading volume over the past day totaled approximately $51 billion, suggesting continued participation but little conviction on either side of the market. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization stood at $1.75 trillion, reflecting a 2% increase over the prior 24 hours, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.

The uneasy price action comes as sentiment has turned decisively bearish. The Fear and Greed Index—a composite indicator that incorporates volatility, volume, social media trends, and momentum—has fallen deep into its lowest category, historically associated with panic-driven selling and heightened emotional decision-making.

Extreme fear hits crypto markets

A reading of 11 places the market firmly in “extreme fear,” a zone typically marked by heightened downside anxiety and risk aversion. Historically, such conditions have often coincided with local bottoms, though timing remains uncertain.

The index operates on a 0–100 scale, where readings below 25 indicate extreme fear and levels above 75 suggest extreme greed. 

At current levels, investors appear more concerned about further downside than missing potential upside, reinforcing the defensive tone seen across digital asset markets.Market participants often view extreme fear as a contrarian signal, arguing that widespread pessimism can create favorable long-term entry points. 

Thin liquidity amplifies downside moves

Bitcoin price’s recent slide below the $90,000 level occurred during typically illiquid weekend trading, exacerbating volatility as sellers encountered limited buy-side support. Prices fell from the low-$92,000 range late last week to weekend lows near $87,000, marking one of the sharpest short-term pullbacks since October’s all-time high.

The broader crypto market mirrored bitcoin’s weakness. Major altcoins continued to post double-digit monthly losses, while bitcoin dominance climbed toward 57%, underscoring a flight to relative safety within the digital asset complex.

Muted volumes suggest the move lower reflects caution rather than capitulation, with traders reluctant to deploy fresh capital ahead of key macroeconomic events.

Globally, attention is also turning to Japan, where the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates. Such a move could pressure yen-funded carry trades that have supported global risk assets over the past year, potentially adding another headwind for crypto markets.

Bitcoin price levels in focus

From a technical perspective, analysts are closely watching the mid-$80,000 range as near-term support. A sustained break below this zone could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the low-$80,000s or below. 

Conversely, holding current levels would reinforce the view that the bitcoin price remains range-bound rather than entering a prolonged bearish phase.

Despite the gloomy mood, long-term narratives remain intact for many investors, particularly as institutional participation continues to expand through spot bitcoin ETFs and broader regulatory clarity.

For now, however, bitcoin’s price action reflects a market caught between structural optimism and short-term fear—an uneasy balance that has pushed sentiment to one of its most pessimistic readings of the year.

Despite all this, earlier today, asset manager Bitwise released a new report that argues that bitcoin is poised to break from its historical four-year market cycle, setting new all-time highs in 2026 while becoming less volatile and less correlated with equities.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $87,706.

This post Bitcoin Price Trades Near $87,000 as Market Slips Into ‘Extreme Fear’ first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Asset manager Bitwise released a new report that argues that bitcoin is poised to break from its historical four-year market cycle, setting new all-time highs in 2026 while becoming less volatile and less correlated with equities.

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougen outlined three forecasts he says matter most for crypto investors: the end of the four-year cycle, continued volatility compression, and declining correlation between BTC and traditional stock markets.

The four-year cycle is ‘significantly weaker’

Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year pattern tied to the halving cycle, typically marked by three years of gains followed by a sharp pullback. Under that framework, 2026 would be expected to be a down year.

Bitwise disagrees.

“The forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the BTC halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan wrote.

He pointed to the diminishing impact of successive halvings, expectations for falling interest rates in 2026, and reduced systemic leverage following record liquidations in October 2025. Improving regulatory clarity is also expected to lower the risk of major market blow-ups.

More importantly, Bitwise expects institutional capital flows to accelerate. With spot bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024, the firm anticipates broader participation from major wealth platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch, alongside increased adoption from Wall Street and fintech firms amid a more favorable regulatory environment following the 2024 U.S. election.

Bitwise believes these factors could push bitcoin to fresh all-time highs, effectively ending the relevance of the four-year cycle.

Bitcoin volatility continues to decline

The firm also challenged the long-standing criticism that BTC is too volatile for mainstream investors.

According to Bitwise, BTC was less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025, a comparison Hougan says underscores the asset’s ongoing maturation. Data cited in the report shows bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the past decade as its investor base has diversified and traditional investment vehicles like ETFs have expanded access.

Bitwise expects that trend to continue into 2026, likening bitcoin’s evolution to gold’s transition following the launch of gold ETFs in the early 2000s.

Lower correlation with equities

Finally, Bitwise predicts BTC’s correlation with stocks will fall further in 2026. While critics often claim bitcoin trades in lockstep with equities, Hougan noted that rolling 90-day correlations with the S&P 500 have rarely exceeded 0.50.

Looking ahead, Bitwise expects crypto-specific catalysts—such as regulatory progress and institutional adoption—to drive bitcoin independently, even as equity markets grapple with valuation concerns and slowing economic growth.

Taken together, the firm sees 2026 shaping up as a favorable year for bitcoin investors, characterized by strong returns, lower volatility, and reduced correlation with traditional assets.

“That’s the trifecta for investors,” Hougan wrote, adding that these dynamics could drive tens of billions of dollars in new institutional inflows.

This post Bitwise Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Dead, Predicts Bitcoin New Highs in 2026 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Bitcoin treasury companies have been hit hard by Bitcoin’s disappointing price action throughout 2025. Publicly traded firms holding significant BTC reserves are suffering the most, with leaders like (Micro)Strategy pushing aggressive accumulation amid headwinds—yet most now trade below net asset value, creating a rare opportunity for risk-tolerant strategic investors.

The Bitcoin Treasury Companies Landscape

Not all Bitcoin treasury companies are created equally. Strategy stands apart as the industry standard-bearer, the “Bitcoin among treasury companies,” as it were. The company has maintained its accumulation discipline even as its stock has suffered, recently announcing a $1.44 billion USD reserve specifically designed to pay dividends and debt obligations without forcing Bitcoin sales.

This capital buffer theoretically eliminates the need for excessive dilutive share issuance or forced BTC liquidation, a critical distinction from weaker competitors. Many will likely face shareholder pressure and potential forced selling as their stock prices decline, creating a cascade of supply pressure that could paradoxically benefit the strongest players like MSTR.

Valuation Dynamics of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

The most compelling aspect of current treasury company valuations is that they now trade below net asset value on a per-share basis. In practical terms, you can currently purchase one dollar’s worth of Bitcoin for less than one dollar through treasury company stock. This represents an arbitrage opportunity for investors, though one accompanied by elevated volatility and company-specific risks.

Strategy currently sits at a net asset value premium of less than 1, meaning the company’s market capitalization is below the value of its Bitcoin holdings alone. The upside scenario is striking. If Bitcoin reclaims its previous all-time high around $126,000, Strategy continues accumulating toward 700,000 BTC, and the market assigns even a modest 1.5x to 1.75x net asset value premium, Strategy could approach the $500 region per share.

From Weak to Strong: The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Examining Strategy’s performance during the previous Bitcoin bear market and overlaying it onto the current cycle reveals eerie alignment. The bar patterns suggest current price levels represent reasonable support, with only a catastrophic final flush justified by Bitcoin weakness providing reason to expect substantially lower levels.

As weaker treasury companies face forced selling, a consolidation thesis emerges, that Strategy and similar strong-positioned players will potentially accumulate cheap Bitcoin from distressed sellers, further concentrating holdings in the most disciplined accumulators. This dynamic mirrors Bitcoin’s own consolidation process, weaker hands sell, stronger hands accumulate, and the asset becomes more concentrated among conviction holders.

Conclusion: Opportunity in Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Bitcoin treasury companies have for the most part delivered disappointing returns in 2025, but this performance has created a window of exceptional opportunity for disciplined investors. At current valuations, Strategy is essentially selling one dollar of Bitcoin for approximately 90 cents, a discount that becomes even more attractive if Bitcoin experiences one final capitulation flush. The probability of this scenario combined with Strategy’s positioned upside creates asymmetric risk-reward worthy of small, carefully-sized positions within aggressive portfolios.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Undervalued first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.