It’s been a turbulent and volatile fourth quarter for Bitcoin in 2025. BTC has endured a turbulent December, with prices dropping nearly 9% and volatility spiking to levels not seen since April 2025.

In its latest mid-December “ChainCheck” report, VanEck’s digital asset analysts painted a nuanced picture: while on-chain activity remains weak, liquidity conditions are improving, and speculative leverage appears to be resetting, offering cautious optimism for long-term holders.

The firm highlighted the contrasting behaviors between different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been actively buying the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC — their largest addition since July — bringing aggregate holdings above one million BTC. 

This contrasts with Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors, who have reduced exposure, underscoring a shift toward corporate accumulation over retail-led speculation. 

Analysts at VanEck noted that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, including issuing preferred shares rather than common stock, to fund purchases and operations, reflecting a more strategic, long-term approach.

Onchain data also revealed a divergence between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, while coins held for more than five years remain largely untouched. 

VanEck interprets this as a signal that cyclical or shorter-term participants are offloading assets, whereas the oldest cohorts maintain conviction in Bitcoin’s future.

Bitcoin miners are facing a falling hashrate

Miners, meanwhile, have faced a particularly challenging environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, says VanEck — the sharpest decline since April 2024 — as high-capacity operations in regions such as Xinjiang reduced output amid regulatory pressures. Breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have also dropped, reflecting tighter profit margins. 

Historically, however, VanEck notes that falling hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator: periods of declining network power have often preceded positive 90- to 180-day forward returns.

The VanEck team frames its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, designed to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations. 

Under this lens, improving liquidity and the accumulation by DATs provide a counterweight to softer on-chain metrics, including stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees.

Broader macro trends add complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. The U.S. dollar has weakened to near three-month lows, rallying precious metals, but Bitcoin and other crypto assets have remained under pressure. 

In parallel, the evolving financial ecosystem may offer new support. Market observers point to the rise of “everything exchanges,” platforms aiming to integrate stocks, crypto, and prediction markets, leveraging AI-driven trading and settlement systems. 

Just last week, Coinbase made an ‘everything exchange’ like move and launched an expansion of its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features. Companies entering this space — ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms — are vying for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says. 

Bitcoin price volatility 

Despite this, volatility remains a defining feature. While Bitcoin has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled over three, the absence of extreme blow-off tops or drawdowns has tempered expectations. Future bitcoin moves may be more measured, with midterm investors likely to see smaller cyclical peaks and troughs rather than the dramatic swings of prior cycles.

VanEck said the broader market is in correction. Short- to medium-term speculative activity is retreating, long-term holders are holding steady, and institutional accumulation is rising. Coupled with signs of miner capitulation, subdued volatility, and macroeconomic dynamics, the firm frames the current environment as one of structural recalibration. 

As 2025 draws to a close, Bitcoin may be in a period of consolidation that reflects broader market maturation, VanEck said. This may result in some strong positive price moves in the first quarter of next year.

This post Despite a Volatile December For Bitcoin, Bullish Signals Are Emerging: VanEck first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Technologies tend to have a natural ceiling built into their utility and popularity. Once they’ve solved all the problems they can solve, their growth is effectively capped. As soon as all potato fans own a potato peeler, the peeler market’s growth potential is largely tapped out. Indeed, the big question around AI at the moment is how many problems it will be able to solve. The market could already be overblown, or it could be practically limitless.

What about stablecoins? They’ve grown from practically nothing at the turn of the decade to a market cap in the mid-12 digits and monthly transaction volumes in excess of $1 trillion. Citigroup expects the aggregate stablecoin market cap to hit around $2 trillion by the end of the decade. 

If we’re talking trillions, it sounds much more like AI than potato peelers.

But do stablecoins have a natural limit? Is their utility restricted to a certain range of problems? If so, where is it? How far can stablecoins grow, and what might stop them?

In order to find answers to these questions, let’s recall why stablecoins have come so far already, what will limit their future growth, and what that means for their overall utility, i.e. the range of problems they can solve.

Why Stablecoins Gained Market Traction

Three reasons for stablecoins’ current popularity stand out.

Stable Prices, Low Volatility

The first reason is price stability. Many cryptocurrencies are volatile, which makes them valuable for speculation but awkward to use as everyday currencies. The value of stablecoins is, well, stable. By definition. Price stability is their fundamental value proposition.

Price stability is also arguably an advantage relative to other cryptocurrencies whose value is perpetually expected to rise. If your coins’ value will double in five years, you might be reluctant to spend them now. But if your coins will be worth the same or even a little less in five years, you better spend them before they burn a hole in your pocket.

Greater Portability 

The second is portability. Exchanging fiat for crypto can be arduous, but exchanging one crypto for another is usually much easier. So many users find it more efficient to convert fiat into stablecoins in bulk, then easily shift value between various cryptocurrencies as needed. USDT is the most traded coin overall because it works so well on the other side of any crypto trade.

In many markets, these first two factors reinforce each other. Many countries’ national currencies depreciate more rapidly than stablecoins’ pegged currencies, so stablecoins give people in those countries a way to protect their wealth from depreciation. And those same countries often use currency controls to prevent capital flight, but their citizens can often access stablecoins to circumvent those artificial barriers.

Tax Optimization

The third reason is simply taxes. Many jurisdictions — including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia — classify cryptocurrencies as commodities rather than currencies. As a result, capital gains taxes apply to cryptocurrency price appreciation, so each transaction can be a taxable event. But many users and businesses might want to use crypto for its portability, like payment rails, so stablecoins’ price stability helps them avoid taxable events during routine payments.

You Can’t Copy State Money without State Rules

Fiat currency is the modern state’s crown jewel. Beyond a national currency’s symbolic value, controlling the source of everyone’s money is a very advantageous position. For an impression of what a big deal this can be, rewatch Ridley Scott’s Black Rain (it’s a great rewatch for any reason, not least of which is Michael Douglas rockin’ a killer mullet). 

If stablecoins are minting hundreds of billions of fiat equivalents and moving trillions in value each month, the state is going to take a very close interest in what they’re doing and how. You can’t open your own private mint moving that kind of liquidity and hope to stay under the regulatory radar.

Besides, history shows that states will regulate whatever they can. They have to. Any activity they cannot regulate implicitly threatens their claim to authority, and they don’t actually produce anything (besides perhaps regulation), so they need to acquire resources. In order to take their cut from an activity, states have to first quantify and control (i.e. regulate) that activity. This is the kind of argument that led Charles Tilly, one of the last century’s most respected historical sociologists, to call states “protection rackets” and “organized crime.”

Centralized activity is also why states preferred tariffs over taxes until pretty recently. Back when bureaucracies were small and populations were spread out, states found it very hard to tax income. They didn’t have the data to quantify it nor the technology to control it. So they preferred tariffs because there are far fewer ports and bridges than there are households and shops. 

In other words, the more centralized an activity is, the easier it is to quantify and control (and skim of course). More concisely: centralization attracts regulation. And the more central an activity is to state power, the more incentive the state has to regulate it, and printing money is about as central as it gets.

Stablecoins are no exception. They are centralized both in terms of the source of their value and in their actual operations, which is why regulators have been busy churning out rules lately. While that regulation might even be necessary and wise, it does and will limit stablecoins’ utility.

Rules, Their Effects, and Extrapolating the Future

The supply of regulation has increased a lot recently, but maybe it’s just meeting demand. In fact, Tether and Circle, the two biggest stablecoin issuers, are getting involved in the regulatory process with different strategies. They’re aware of their position as private USD mints and companies that take large amounts of private deposits and reinvest them (i.e. banks). Mature stablecoin issuers seem to want regulation.

The regulators themselves argue that stablecoin regulation is a good thing because it protects users and gives issuers “more predictable regulatory environments.” Not surprisingly, this is the view of the SEC. 

And this reasoning is not without merit. Companies managing hundreds of billions in liabilities should be able to meet those liabilities, and maybe someone should check. But the existing regulations have added some massive obstacles to where and how people can use stablecoins.

Let’s start with Europe, because regulatory legalese is the EU’s official language. The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is the key stablecoin regulatory measure in Europe. It became law in 2023, but the consequences only really struck in Q1 2025. Since MiCA requires stablecoin issuers to obtain an e-money license in at least one European state, major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase delisted nine leading stablecoins, including USDT, the biggest stablecoin of all. (Of course, a consortium of nine too-big-to-fail European banks is trying to launch their own euro-pegged stablecoin.) 

MiCA was a regulatory nuke, practically banning leading stablecoins and seeking to replace them with astroturfed European alternatives.

Somewhat more friendly to experimentation and innovation, the USA has implemented the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. GENIUS is a little more permissive in that the Treasury Department can determine that foreign stablecoin issuers are subject to sufficient regulation at home, sparing them the need for a local US presence. It also prescribes a few particulars like reserve requirements and public disclosure. 

While the GENIUS Act formally restricts issuers and protects users, it also makes issuers subject to the Bank Secrecy Act to prevent money laundering. As anyone knows who’s ever bought crypto on an exchange, AML and KYC are significant friction, and they effectively restrict how holders can use stablecoins. Eliminating exactly that friction was one of the features that made stablecoins attractive in the first place. Greater consumer protection might increase stablecoins’ utility in the long-term aggregate, but a user who wants to buy and trade USDT right now might disagree.

And while the EU and the USA are arguably the most important markets for stablecoins, many other markets either have regulations in place (e.g. Japan, Canada, Chile) or in the pipeline (e.g. the UK, China, Australia, Brazil, Turkey). 

Imagine a giant Venn diagram of all these regulatory regimes, and stablecoins’ utility is in the space where they all overlap and the activity remains economical. How big is that space? And given that stablecoins are pegged to national currencies, which national administrations guard jealously, are these already diverse regulatory regimes likely to converge or diverge in the future?

The denser the jungle of regulations, the smaller and more isolated the clearings where stablecoins can flourish. They will still have a niche, but some niches are more niche than others. It’s unlikely that any stablecoin, based on a national or even regional fiat currency, will satisfy all the regulators in all the markets necessary to become a global currency. That’s probably why real-world stablecoin usage ends up being far more geographically constrained than the “global digital dollars” many hoped for. Even USDT, the most widely used stablecoin, operates at scale in only a few permissive jurisdictions. With roughly 40% of USDT’s market cap and an effectively identical product, USDC faces the same structural limits.

Good as Far as They Go, but Bitcoin Can Go Farther

So stablecoins are centralized fiat tokens. Being centralized and tethered to state fiat means that regulators are grasping them tightly, resulting in cost and friction for everyone involved. This process is already well underway and will continue. Does this mean that stablecoins are doomed?

Probably not. As tokenized fiat, stablecoins are likely to thrive wherever fiat is good enough. In practice, that means conventional payments. I recently defined payments as instructions to clear a debt. Wherever an intermediated quid pro quo describes the interaction, stablecoins will probably work as the quid. Indeed, the potential to capture some of the payment business from other fintech solutions (or to defend their own) is probably why established fintech players like Klarna, PayPal, and Stripe have launched their own stablecoins or stablecoin accounts. Stablecoins are turning into normal payment fintech, but maybe just normal payment fintech.

Normal means subject to state regulations and the functional and geographic limits they impose. It means juicy fees going to intermediaries. It means friction for users. 

But there is a whole universe of value that eludes the payment model either because it requires direct, disintermediated transfers, it disregards political geography, there is no debt involved, or all of the above. The potential for value transfer is sometimes hard to see because the balkanized, intermediated payment paradigm is so dominant. We’ve simply lacked the technology to do much else until recently.

Still, whenever you toss some coins to a busker or tip a content creator, you’re pushing value, not clearing debt. Whenever cash moves from hand to hand, the transfer is disintermediated. Now imagine the busker is on the other side of the globe, and you discovered them through an app. The key to perceiving the rest of that value-transfer universe is to bring that directness and borderlessness into our digital world.

Value transfer needs less friction than fiat in both a technical and regulatory sense. But to achieve that, you’d need a currency that is detached from national currencies and decentralized. That’s where bitcoin comes in. Bitcoin is an open, decentralized, neutral monetary network that works for anyone, anywhere, anytime. If stablecoins have to get by in the clearings of the regulatory jungle, bitcoin floats breezily and limitlessly in the sky above.

Bitcoin was built on and for the internet, so it is natively programmable in ways that stablecoins can only vaguely approximate. And far from needing third-party custodians, bitcoin transfers are direct and disintermediated between the millions of users everywhere. The future stablecoins promise without much credibility is already the present for bitcoin.

It’s Easier to Win the Race without Hurdles

Utility is one of the central concepts in economics because it’s the mystic substance of decision making. People choose what they find most useful, and you know what’s most useful because it’s what people have chosen.

People are using stablecoins, which proves their utility. That usefulness isn’t going to go away, but regulation limits it. Stablecoins’ growth will stop where their utility is roughly matched by the friction that regulation induces. And the current state and probable future of regulation suggest that we’re getting pretty close to this equilibrium.

But since Bitcoin is not centralized and does not feed off state-based fiat currency, it is inherently harder to regulate and consequently attracts much less regulation. It’s also digitally native, which makes it a natural fit for a world of global commerce and value that flows frictionlessly across borders from one app anywhere to another. If regulation is what limits stablecoins’ utility and bitcoin is subject to much less regulation, it’s pretty clear who’s going to win the utility race. 

This is a guest post by Roy Sheinfeld from Breez. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This post Stablecoins: Evolution, not a Revolution first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Roy Sheinfeld.

Arizona state Sen. Wendy Rogers has introduced a package of legislation aimed at reshaping how digital assets are treated under state and local tax law, renewing a broader push by some lawmakers to position Arizona as a jurisdiction with clearer and more favorable rules for cryptocurrencies and blockchain infrastructure.

In bills prefiled with the Arizona Senate, Rogers proposed amending state statutes to exempt virtual currency from taxation (SB 1044), prohibiting counties, cities and towns from taxing or fining entities that operate blockchain nodes (SB 1045), and advancing a constitutional amendment to clarify how digital assets fit into Arizona’s property tax framework (SCR 1003).

By contrast, SB 1044 and SCR 1003 are tied together and would ultimately require voter approval during the next general election in November 2026.

SCR 1003 proposes amending Arizona’s constitution to explicitly exclude virtual currency from property taxation. SB 1044 would mirror that change in state statutes, adding language that clarifies digital assets are not subject to property tax. Under Arizona law, changes to constitutional tax definitions must be approved by voters, making the ballot measure a central hurdle for the broader tax exemption effort.

SB 1045 addresses a narrower, but increasingly debated issue: the treatment of blockchain nodes at the local level. The bill would bar cities, towns and counties from imposing “a tax or fee on a person that runs a node on blockchain technology,” effectively preventing local governments from singling out node operators through taxes or penalties. 

Arizona is one of many states embracing bitcoin and crypto

Arizona’s legislative activity around digital assets builds on earlier efforts that have already placed the state among a small group with crypto-specific laws on the books. Arizona is one of the few U.S. states that allows the government to take custody of digital assets deemed abandoned after three years. 

That framework emerged from past attempts by crypto advocates to establish a state-level digital asset reserve and has since become part of a wider debate over how much authority states should have to hold or invest in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.

Rogers was previously a co-sponsor of a bitcoin reserve bill that was vetoed by Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs in May. Following the veto, Rogers criticized the decision and said she planned to refile similar legislation in a future session.

Arizona’s proposals arrive as states across the country experiment with different approaches to digital asset policy. New Hampshire and Texas have also enacted laws related to digital asset reserves, while other states have focused on narrower tax questions. 

Ohio lawmakers advanced a bill that would exempt cryptocurrency transactions under $200 from capital gains taxes, though it has stalled since June.

 In New York, a proposal to impose a 0.2% excise tax on digital asset transactions was referred to committee earlier this year and has not moved forward.

At the federal level, Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming introduced draft legislation proposing a de minimis exemption for digital asset transactions and capital gains of $300 or less. 

Lummis announced on Friday that she plans to retire from the U.S. Senate in January 2027.

Bitcoin is trading at $87,341, down 3% over the past 24 hours. Its 24-hour trading volume is $46 B. The price is 3% below its 7-day high of $90,031 and 1% above its 7-day low of $86,806.

With a circulating supply of 19,966,021 BTC (out of a maximum 21 million), Bitcoin’s market cap stands at approximately $1.74 T, reflecting a 3% drop in the last 24 hours.

This post Arizona Introduces Bill To Exempt Bitcoin and Crypto From Property Taxes  first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The Bank of Russia has set out a new framework to regulate cryptocurrencies, proposing tiered access that would allow everyday investors to buy digital assets alongside professional market participants, while maintaining tight controls on risk and usage.

In a concept paper released Tuesday and submitted to the government for review, the central bank said both qualified and non-qualified investors would be permitted to acquire crypto assets, but under different rules, limits and testing requirements. 

The move marks another step in Russia’s gradual shift toward accommodating digital assets as sanctions reshape financial flows and market infrastructure.

Earlier this year, the Bank of Russia moved to allow domestic banks to conduct limited crypto operations under strict oversight. First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Chistyukhin said the central bank, while maintaining a conservative stance on assets like bitcoin, no longer sees a justification for fully excluding banks from such activity. 

It was also reported that Russia was using bitcoin to settle some oil trades with China and India, routing payments through intermediaries to bypass Western sanctions. 

So with that said, the current proposal maintains the central bank’s long-standing caution toward cryptocurrencies, which it continues to classify as high-risk instruments. 

The Bank of Russia warned that crypto assets are not issued or guaranteed by any jurisdiction, are subject to sharp price swings, and carry elevated sanctions and operational risks. Investors, it said, must fully accept the possibility of losing their funds.

A $3,800 cap for Russia’s retail investors

Under the framework, non-qualified, or retail, investors would be allowed to purchase only the most liquid cryptocurrencies, based on criteria to be defined in legislation. 

Access would be conditional on passing a knowledge test, and purchases would be capped at 300,000 rubles (around $3,800) per year through a single intermediary.

Qualified investors would face fewer constraints. They would be permitted to buy any cryptocurrency without transaction limits, provided they pass a test confirming their understanding of the risks. However, anonymous cryptocurrencies—defined as tokens whose smart contracts conceal information about transaction recipients—would remain off-limits.

Digital currencies and stablecoins would be formally recognized as monetary assets under the proposal, meaning they could be bought and sold. 

Their use as a means of domestic payment within Russia would remain forbidden, reinforcing the central bank’s position that crypto should not function as an alternative to the ruble in everyday transactions.

Cryptocurrency trading would take place through existing licensed infrastructure. Exchanges, brokers and trustees would be able to offer crypto services under their current authorizations, while additional requirements would apply to specialized crypto depositories and exchangers.

The framework also allows Russian residents to buy cryptocurrencies abroad using foreign accounts and to transfer previously acquired crypto overseas through Russian intermediaries. Such transactions would require notification to the tax authorities.

Beyond cryptocurrencies, the proposal extends to digital financial assets (DFAs) and other Russian digital rights, including utilitarian and hybrid instruments. Their circulation on open networks would be permitted, a move intended to help issuers attract foreign investment and give investors access to DFAs on terms comparable to crypto assets.

The Bank of Russia aims to complete the legislative framework by July 1, 2026. From July 1, 2027, it plans to introduce liability for illegal activity by crypto intermediaries, aligned with penalties for illegal banking operations.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $87,555, with a 24-hour trading volume of $47 billion, down 3% over the past day.

The price stood about 3% below its seven-day high of $90,069 and roughly 1% above its seven-day low of $87,096. Bitcoin’s circulating supply was 19,965,971 coins out of a maximum supply of 21 million, giving the network a global market capitalization of about $1.75 trillion, down 3% from 24 hours earlier.

This post Russia Opens the Door to Bitcoin and Crypto for Retail Investors first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

The bitcoin price briefly crossed the $90,000 mark earlier Monday, rallying from $88,000 during Asian trading hours to just above $90,000 in European and US afternoon trading. 

The surge didn’t last long as the bitcoin price dropped down near $88,000 by the end of afternoon. 

BTC has displayed a pattern in recent weeks of gaining momentum during Asian and European trading hours, only to see those advances fade once U.S. investors re-enter the market. 

Data from CoinGlass show that bitcoin futures open interest climbed earlier in the day toward $60 billion across major trading venues including Binance, CME, and Bybit. The increase suggests fresh leveraged positions are entering the market, rather than mere short-covering.

Rising open interest alongside higher prices does not necessarily signal immediate trouble. But it does heighten the stakes. If momentum stalls, crowded long positions could unwind rapidly, prompting steep pullbacks. 

Conversely, if the rally holds, leverage could amplify upside potential.

A sustained move and hold above $90,000 could signal a shift away from the pattern of sharp early-day sell-offs that has characterized much of December. A sustained hold above this level would suggest bullish momentum, while failing to do so may indicate the continuation of the market’s tendency toward lower highs and rapid pullbacks.

Bitcoin price technical levels

Support for the bitcoin price remains near $84,000, a level that has proven resilient in recent weeks. Immediate resistance lies at $91,400, with the next key level at $94,000. Beyond $94,000, analysts point to $98,000 and a zone between $101,000 and $108,000 as strong resistance.

Closing above $108,000 could challenge assumptions that bitcoin price’s 2025 peak marks a long-term top, according to Bitcoin Magazine analysis.

Despite the rally, the U.S. macroeconomic environment remains a key influence on bitcoin’s price trajectory. The Federal Reserve’s policy path is uncertain, in part due to delays in key inflation data caused by the recent government shutdown.

Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, told DLNews that until the Fed receives several months of uninterrupted inflation readings, market participants are unlikely to commit fully to risk assets like bitcoin.

Investors are also monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators. GDP figures for the third quarter are due tomorrow, with forecasts pointing to roughly 3.5% annualized growth, slightly below the second quarter’s 3.8% pace. Consumer confidence data and weekly jobless claims will provide additional insights into the labor market, potentially influencing risk appetite.

Potential ‘Santa Rally’

Historical seasonality offers some reason for optimism. The S&P 500 has often rallied during the final five trading days of December and the first two days of January, a pattern known as the “Santa Claus rally.” BTC’s correlation with equities via ETFs means a festive push in stocks could spill over into the crypto market.

Bitcoin’s Santa period performance has been mixed historically. Strong returns of 33% and 46% were recorded in 2011 and 2016, respectively, while other years saw declines. Overall, BTC has averaged a roughly 7.9% gain during the period since 2011.

Gold has been a more consistent performer, delivering a 95% cumulative return over the same window, and its recent record highs above $4,400 an ounce should strong sentiment. 

Bitcoin price outlook

For now, sellers remain in control near $89,000, roughly 30% below bitcoin’s October all-time high. Investors pulled nearly $500 million from spot bitcoin ETFs last week, signaling caution amid macro uncertainty.

However, per Bitcoin Magazine data, if bulls maintain support above $84,000 and manage to hold gains above $90,000 during U.S. hours, they may create a foundation for a year-end rally. 

The interplay between spot demand, futures leverage, and macroeconomic signals will likely dictate whether the bitcoin price can sustain its push toward the key $94,000 and $101,000 levels in the final weeks of 2025.

BTC was trading at $88,368 at press time, with a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization stood at roughly $1.76 trillion, with 19.97 million coins in circulation and a maximum supply capped at 21 million.

This post Bitcoin Price Struggles at $90,000 as Christmas Trading Looms first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Last week, bulls needed to hold closes above $85,000 to stave off the bears, and they managed to do just that. Bitcoin price dropped to support once again last week, and the bulls defended it well, pushing the price back up to close the week out at $88,656. The price on the weekly chart has been rejecting from the lower trend line of the broadening wedge pattern for several weeks now, but the trend line is so low now that the price should push above it this week. If it fails to do so this week, look for the price to take the next leg down into the low $70,000 range.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Bulls will want to continue the push this week, level by level if need be. Initial resistance sits at $91,400, with the next level at $94,000. Above here, we should see very strong resistance at $98,000. Then we should see a fairly strong resistance zone from $101,000 all the way up to $108,000. Closing above $108,000 would start to place severe doubts on the long-term top being in place here.

The $84,000 support level below is proving to be resilient, holding up again this past week. If it is lost, the expected support levels below have not changed. The $72,000 to $68,000 zone should be expected to support the price on a first test at the least. Closing below $68,000 likely leads to a slow grind down to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support at $57,000.

Outlook For This Week

The bears may be getting a little flustered with their recent failure to break support. This week, look for the bulls to push back a bit harder as they gain some confidence after holding support once again. Market liquidity should be low for Christmas week, so price movement may be lacking. There are some very large long-dated bitcoin options expiring on December 26th, however, with a max pain price of $100,000, so look for the price to try to push closer to the $100,000 level this week.

Market mood: Bearish – Bulls are pushing back a little here, but they still need to prove it to the bears with some positive price action.

The next few weeks
Bulls held back the bears from breaking down major support last week. If the bulls can finally manage to take out resistance at $94,000 over the next couple of weeks, they may be able to sustain some upward momentum into the new year as well. So if we see a weekly close above $94,000, look for the price to move towards $101,000. This momentum could continue to $108,000 with a close above $100,000. Resistance becomes extremely thick near this level, though, so a strong rejection near this level should be expected if we can make it there over the coming weeks.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

This post Bitcoin Price Outlook: Bulls Target $94,000 Break for Momentum Into New Year first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

In late 2025, Mark Karpelès, ex CEO of Mt. Gox, lives a quieter life in Japan, building a VPN and an AI automation platform. As Chief Protocol Officer at vp.net—a VPN that uses Intel’s SGX technology to let users verify exactly what code runs on servers—he works alongside Roger Ver and Andrew Lee, the founder of Private Internet Access. “It’s the only VPN that you can trust basically. You don’t need to trust it, actually, you can verify”. At shells.com, his personal cloud computing platform, he’s quietly developing an unreleased AI agent system that hands artificial intelligence full control over a virtual machine: installing software, managing emails, and even handling purchases with a planned credit card integration. “What I’m doing with shells is giving AI a whole computer and free rein on the computer”, a brilliant idea, really. AI agents on steroids.

The contrast with his past could not be starker. Fifteen years ago, Karpelès was the reluctant king of Bitcoin’s trading world, running Mt. Gox at a time when the exchange processed the vast majority of global bitcoin trades.

His journey began innocently enough in 2010. Operating a web hosting company called Tibanne under the brand Kalyhost, Karpelès received a request from a French customer based in Peru who was frustrated with international payment hurdles. “He’s the one who discovered Bitcoin, and asked me if he could use Bitcoin to pay for my services … I was probably one of the first companies to implement Bitcoin payments back in 2010”.

Roger Ver, an early evangelist, became a frequent visitor to Karpelès’ office. Unknowingly, his servers also hosted a domain linked to Silk Road—silkroadmarket.org—purchased anonymously with bitcoin. That connection would later fuel investigations: U.S. authorities briefly suspected Karpelès of being Dread Pirate Roberts himself. “That was actually one of the main arguments why I was investigated by U.S. law enforcement as maybe the guy behind the Silk Road… They thought that I was Dread Pirate Roberts”. The association complicated public perception and even surfaced in Ross Ulbricht’s trial, where, according to Karpelès, Ulbricht’s defense efforts briefly tried to cast doubt by linking Karpelès to the marketplace.

In 2011, Karpelès acquired Mt. Gox from Jed McCaleb, who went on to found Ripple and Stellar. The handover was marred from the start. “Between the time I signed the contract and the time I got access to the server, 80,000 bitcoins were stolen… Jed was adamant that we couldn’t tell users about it,” Karpelès alleged to Bitcoin Magazine. McCaleb faced no criminal liability for the Mt. Gox case, though he has been sued civilly and has been part of the public discourse around the case. Nevertheless, as far as Karpelès is concerned, he inherited a platform plagued by poor code and technical issues.

Mt. Gox exploded in popularity, becoming the primary on-ramp for millions entering Bitcoin. Karpelès maintained strict policies, banning users linked to illicit activities like drug purchases on Silk Road. “If you’re going to buy drugs with Bitcoin, in a country where drugs are illegal, you shouldn’t”, Karpelès told Bitcoin Magazine.

The Mt. Gox empire crumbled in 2014 when hacks—later tied to Alexander Vinnik and the BTC-e exchange—drained over 650,000 bitcoins. Vinnik pleaded guilty in the U.S. but was exchanged in a prisoner swap and returned to Russia without a trial, leaving evidence sealed. “It doesn’t feel like justice has been served,” said Karpelès, a moment that makes you wonder about the odd political value of Vinnik to the Russians. The 650,000 bitcoins stolen remain at large. 

The fallout was swift. Arrested in August 2015, Karpelès endured eleven and a half months in Japanese custody—a system notorious for its rigidity and psychological pressure. Early detention mixed him with colorful cellmates: Yakuza members, drug dealers, fraudsters. He passed the time teaching English, and inmates quickly dubbed him “Mr. Bitcoin” after spotting blanked-out headlines about him in newspapers given to them by the prison guards. One Yakuza even tried recruiting him, slipping a phone number for post-release contact. “… Of course I’m not going to be calling that,” Karpelès laughed.

The psychological tactics were brutal. Japanese police employed repeated rearrests: after 23 days, detainees were led to believe release was imminent, only to face a new warrant at the door. “They really make you think that you’re free and yeah, no, not you’re not free… That’s actually quite a toll in terms of mental health”.

Transferred to Tokyo Detention Center, conditions worsened: over six months in solitary confinement on a floor shared with death row inmates. “It’s still quite painful to spend more than six months in solitary confinement,” he recalled. Forbidden from letters or visits if claiming innocence, he coped by rereading books and writing stories—”the stuff I wrote is really crappy. I wouldn’t show it to anyone,” he said when asked if he would ever publish his writings. Armed with 20,000 pages of accounting records and a basic calculator purchased for his case, he dismantled embezzlement charges by uncovering $5 million in unreported revenue in the exchange.

Paradoxically, prison improved his health dramatically. Chronic sleep deprivation—often just two hours a night during his workaholic Mt. Gox days—gave way to regular rest. “Sleeping at night helps a lot… when I work I’m used to only sleeping two hours a night, which is a very, very bad habit” (00:22:18). Emerging physically transformed—”shredded,” as observers noted at the time—he surprised the Bitcoin community with fresh photos showing peak condition.

Released on bail after disproving key charges, Karpelès was convicted only on lighter record-falsification counts at the end of the ordeal. The Silk Road links had complicated perceptions, with Ross Ulbricht’s defense briefly attempting to implicate him to create plausible deniability for Ulbricht. Public narratives often painted him as complicit in Bitcoin’s dark side, despite his policies against it.

Emerging in 2016, rumors swirled of vast personal wealth from Mt. Gox’s remaining assets—once estimated at hundreds of millions or even billions due to Bitcoin’s price surge. Yet Karpelès says he receives nothing. The bankruptcy’s pivot to civil rehabilitation allowed creditors to claim in bitcoins, distributing value proportionally. I like to use technology to solve problems, and so I don’t really even do any kind of investment or anything like that because I like to make money by constructing things. To just get a payout for something that’s essentially a failure for me would feel very wrong, and at the same time, I’d want customers to get the money as much as possible.” Creditors, many now receiving far more in dollar terms due to Bitcoin’s rise, continue waiting.

Today, Karpelès collaborates with Roger Ver—the early visitor turned business partner—who recently settled U.S. tax claims for nearly $50 million. “I’m happy for him that he’s finally getting things cleared,” Karpelès said.

Today, Karpelès says he owns no bitcoin personally, though his businesses accept it as a form of payment. Discussing the current state of Bitcoin, he critiqued centralization risks in ETFs and figures like Michael Saylor: “This is a recipe for catastrophe… I like to believe in crypto in mathematics and different things, but I don’t believe in people”. On FTX: “They were running accounting on QuickBooks for a potentially multi-billion dollar company, which is crazy”.

From Bitcoin’s epicenter—hosting Silk Road links, onboarding the world, enduring Japan’s harshest detention—to building verifiable privacy tools, Karpelès’ arc reflects the industry’s maturation. His story marks the first roar of Bitcoin into mainstream culture, a time when his leadership as CEO of Mt. Gox placed him at the center of the storm. Clearest of all, his builder mindset remains a great example of the type of engineer and entrepreneur attracted to Bitcoin in those early days. 

This post Former Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpelès Reveals Details of 2014 Collapse and Japanese Detention first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Juan Galt.

Interhash has acquired a controlling stake in Neopool, a Bitcoin mining pool. The deal was closed during the Bitcoin MENA 2025 conference.

Neopool, launched earlier this year, has entered the top 15 global mining pools and ranks first worldwide in Daily PPS efficiency, according to miningpoolstats.stream.

Alexander Lozben, CEO of Interhash, said the company sees strong potential in Neopool and views mining pools as an undervalued part of the Bitcoin ecosystem, in a note shared with Bitcoin Magazine.

Interhash develops solutions for crypto mining and high-performance computing, focusing on sustainable infrastructure.

Neopool CEO Andrei Kapeikin said the investment provides a strategic partner to support scaling and improve mining efficiency for operations ranging from private farms to industrial-scale facilities.

Neopool has a top-15 global ranking and the highest Daily PPS efficiency, built by a team with over 100 years of combined mining and IT experience.

Earlier this month, Neopool reported record payouts of 169 BTC (around $15 million) to its miners in November 2025, reflecting rapid growth since its launch earlier this year. Ranked by miningpoolstats.stream as the most efficient pool globally, Neopool credits its performance to proprietary optimization technology, low-latency global routing, and transparent FPPS payouts with daily settlements. 

CEO Andrei Kapeikin said that technical excellence and transparency, rather than just hash rate volume, drive miner value. 

This post Interhash Acquires Controlling Stake in Neopool first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Trump Media & Technology Group just beefed up its bitcoin portfolio, acquiring an additional 451 Bitcoin valued at roughly $40.3 million. 

The move brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 11,542 coins, now worth more than $1 billion, according to analytics firm Arkham.

The latest purchase continues Trump Media’s broader crypto treasury strategy. Earlier in 2025, the company reported around $2 billion in Bitcoin and related digital assets as it increasingly positions itself as a crypto‑focused investment entity.

In July, Trump Media announced plans to launch the Truth Social Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF, with Crypto.com serving as the exclusive custodian, prime execution agent, staking, and liquidity provider. Yorkville America Digital, LLC was named as the fund’s sponsor. 

The ETF’s launch was contingent on SEC approval of a Form 19b-4 filing and the effectiveness of its registration statement.

The fund was structured as a Nevada business trust, issuing and redeeming shares in blocks of 10,000 through authorized participants, using cash for creation and redemption. While in-kind transactions were not initially offered, they could be implemented later pending regulatory approval. 

Trump Media said at the time that the shares could not be sold or purchased until the SEC registration statement became effective.

Trump Media stock surges

At the time of writing, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT) are down nearly 10% on the day. That being said, the stock saw its stock surge dramatically last week following an unexpected all-stock merger announcement with TAE Technologies, valuing the combined entity at over $6 billion. 

Shares jumped roughly 42% on Thursday, adding more than half a billion dollars to the Trump family’s holdings, climbed another 8.3% on Friday, and rose 3.6% in Monday premarket trading. 

The merger pivoted TMTG from a social media play into a fusion energy venture, with plans to build nuclear fusion plants to power artificial intelligence operations.

Trump Media went public in 2024 via a SPAC merger and is headquartered in Sarasota, Florida, with Devin Nunes as CEO.

TMTG focuses on social networking, streaming through Truth+, and financial services with a FinTech brand Truth.Fi.

It’s majority‑owned by the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust.

Bitcoin is currently priced at $89,358, with a 24-hour trading volume of $38 B. Its price has risen 2% in the past 24 hours, sitting slightly below its 7-day high of $90,353 and above its 7-day low of $87,948.

The circulating supply is 19,965,603 BTC out of a maximum 21,000,000 BTC, giving Bitcoin a market cap of about $1.78 trillion, which reflects a 2% change over the past day.

This post Trump Media Adds 451 Bitcoin, Total BTC Holdings Surpass $1 Billion first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

Gemini’s Director of Institutional, Patrick Liou, outlined five key predictions for the crypto market in 2026, following what he called a “historic” 2025 for digital assets.

His outlook highlights structural shifts in the market, increasing institutional adoption, and growing mainstream political acceptance, according to a note shared with Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle narrative

Liou predicts that Bitcoin may end 2026 with a negative return, challenging the traditional four-year cycle that has historically guided investor expectations.

According to Liou, the market’s maturation — characterized by new participants, regulated investment vehicles, and deeper liquidity — has reduced volatility. He noted that recent pullbacks have been far smaller than in previous cycles, with Bitcoin down roughly 30% from its highs rather than the 75–90% declines seen historically. 

Structural changes, including lower implied volatility in options markets, signal a broader investor base and a more durable bull case for the asset.

Political embrace of crypto for midterms

Liou expects both major U.S. political parties to increasingly court the crypto community in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms. While Republicans were the first to engage crypto voters in 2024, Democrats are anticipated to follow suit. 

Liou highlighted the stalled Market Structure bill as a key legislative focus, predicting its passage in early 2026 with bipartisan support. Candidates in swing states such as Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan are also expected to include crypto policy in their campaign agendas.

Crypto-backed prediction markets will gain traction

Prediction markets, which leverage crowd-sourced insights to forecast outcomes, are poised for growth, Liou said. Such platforms aim to reward informed forecasting while providing more accurate market intelligence.

Digital asset treasury companies will consolidate

After a wave of digital asset treasury (DAT) launches in 2025, Liou forecasts consolidation through mergers and acquisitions in 2026.

He noted that simply holding crypto will no longer suffice; DATs must demonstrate sophisticated financial management, including capital market engagement and balance sheet optimization, to maintain shareholder value.

Nation states may move gold into bitcoin reserves

Liou predicts that at least one nation will convert part of its gold reserves into Bitcoin next year. He cited Bitcoin’s advantages, such as instant transferability, on-chain verifiability, and fractionalization, as driving interest from sovereign investors. 

The U.S., with its strategic digital asset framework, could be a candidate, while other countries seeking diversification from the dollar or high gold-to-GDP ratios may also explore the shift.

This post Gemini Predicts Bitcoin Cycle Break and Nation-State Bitcoin Adoption in 2026 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.